Diplomatic observers said, Sunday, North Korea’s domestic challenges, such as COVID-19 and poor economic conditions, had led its leader to shy away from addressing South Korea and the United States in his closely watched year-end speech, adding that this situation is expected to continue for some time.
However, they added that Pyongyang made it clear that it was on course for the development of nuclear and missile programs that may negatively affect South Korea’s push to declare a formal end to the Korean War.
The Stalinist state wrapped up the five-day, fourth Plenary Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party, Friday, but Kim Jong-un made few references to foreign policy and relations with Seoul and Washington, contrary to expectations that he would unveil the direction of the country’s international relations for 2022 as the speech was expected to replace his New Year address.
Adding to the expectations was the timing of the meeting that coincided with the 10-year anniversary of his ascendance to power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il in 2011.
“Kim Jong-un has been focusing on domestic issues for most of 2021. He hasn’t really said much about South Korea or the U.S. And he hasn’t engaged in any major provocation, nor has he responded to multiple offers of dialogue,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.
Since January 2020, the North Korean regime has closed its borders to prevent the spread of COVID-19 from China, a policy that has severely hurt its economy. As a result, the North has remained unresponsive despite the South Korean government’s proposal for an end-of-war declaration and the Joe Biden administration’s dialogue offers.
“Kim’s hands are probably tied by the pandemic. The coronavirus’ economic and public health fallout compounds North Korea’s already dire economic situation. Unfortunately, cooperation isn’t in North Korea’s lexicon, so Kim’s solution is to internalize the pandemic, which comes at a cost to the lives and happiness of the North Korean population,” said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corporation.
In fact, the plenary meeting mainly focused on developing the national economy and improving the people’s livelihoods, while bolstering antivirus efforts, according to the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Pacheco Pardo said Kim will continue to ignore South Korea and the U.S. until the country decides to fully reopen its border.
“This will happen when Kim feels that it is safe because the COVID-19 pandemic is under control. So I think that Kim will continue to focus on domestic conditions and the poor state of the North Korean economy for the time being. Considering this, probably he has no public message for South Korea or the U.S. and wants to keep his options open,” he said.
During the meeting, the North Korean leader also stressed the importance of further bolstering the country’s defense capability, prompting experts to say that he has not given up his nuclear and missile ambitions.
“Kim didn’t address the U.S. and South Korea; the regime did, however, underscore continued development of the military, so we know that Kim’s bottom line on nuclear weapons and missiles has not changed. This alone should be sufficient in suggesting that Kim’s nuclear ambitions are par for the course,” Soo Kim said.
Pacheco Pardo also said, “I think that the point about the five-year plan adopted at the Eighth Party Congress still being valid indicates that there is no reversal on military modernization. Therefore, Pyongyang will continue to develop its weapons programs until further notice.”
Critics believe that the symbolic and nonbinding end-of-war declaration will not resolve the decades-long nuclear issue, because the Moon Jae-in administration’s overhasty drive for the announcement may legitimize North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons.
