In the wake of President Moon Jae-in’s decision not to join the U.S.-led diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics, concerns have been rapidly mounting that the decision may harm the nation’s strategic partnership with the United States.
But diplomatic observers said the rejection of the boycott will not have a negative impact on the longstanding alliance and ongoing negotiations to declare an end to the Korean War ― although the U.S. government may not be pleased about it.
However, they also believe that China will not live up to South Korea’s expectations of playing a role in improving inter-Korean relations and supporting Moon’s proposal to end the war as a reward for refusing to participate in the boycott.
During a press conference following a summit with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Canberra, Dec. 13, President Moon said South Korea was not considering joining the diplomatic boycott, citing the need for China’s help in his push to end the war.
“I think the U.S. will understand and accept President Moon’s decision not to have a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics,” said Joseph DeTrani, a former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea.
“Some in the U.S. government and Congress may be critical of the ROK decision, but it should not negatively affect bilateral relations between Seoul and Washington.”
The ROK stands for South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.
Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, echoed DeTrani’s view.
“Obviously, the U.S. will not be happy with Moon’s decision not to join the diplomatic boycott. But the decision shows that nations have interests as well as values, and they are based on geography, economics, culture and history,” he said.
“In any case, the U.S.-ROK alliance and strategic partnership are too important to both nations for the Olympic decision to have a major impact.”
Daniel Sneider, a lecturer on international policy at Stanford University, also said, “It is really a symbolic gesture and one made more for domestic political reasons in the U.S. than a serious attempt to punish China. After all, who really cares whether Jill Biden shows up at the Games or not.”
They said that talks between the allies over the “end-of-war” declaration will be not affected as well.
The South Korean government believes that the declaration could jump-start stalled North Korean denuclearization talks while building confidence with Pyongyang. But experts are reluctant to buy into that theory.
“An end-of-war declaration would be a historic feel-good and meaningless gesture without any tangible benefits, and would do nothing to improve the security situation on the Korean Peninsula,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation.
“It would not reduce the North Korean military threat to the allies or alleviate distrust and suspicion on either side. It would only provide an amorphous hope that it would improve relations and lead Pyongyang to undertake undefined positive actions.”
Sneider said despite South Korea’s desperate desire to have some kind of declaration ending the war before President Moon leaves office next May, it will remain a hopeless and empty goal.
“As President Moon made clear in his recent remarks, the North Koreans are demanding an end to hostilities, defined effectively as an American military withdrawal from South Korea and even from the entire region. That merely reveals the North Korean goal ― it is not an end to the war but a surrender to North Korean nuclear blackmail,” he said.
“If President Moon wants to unilaterally declare an end to the war, as perhaps he will be compelled to do, it will be a totally empty statement.”
Manning also said, “By itself, the declaration is just a piece of paper. In any case, given Pyongyang’s conditions of ending the U.S.’ hostile policy, it has little chance of succeeding.”
getty images bankSome experts even said the Joe Biden administration’s cooperation in discussing the declaration was due to its efforts to maintain its alliance with South Korea.“As for the Biden administration, it understands perfectly well that there can be no real end to the war under the current circumstances, but the U.S. is also trying its best to maintain the alliance with Seoul. So they are not rejecting the idea and keeping the door open to talks,” Sneider said.
Klingner said, “Despite the Moon administration’s repeated claims of a U.S. agreement to an end-of-war declaration, Washington has made clear it has no interest in a simplistic non-binding document merely as an inducement to get North Korea to resume dialogue.”
“Instead, Washington advocates that any peace initiative needs to be part of a comprehensive agreement that addresses the North Korean weapons of mass destruction and conventional forces threat. Washington eventually felt it necessary to issue politely-worded statements pointing out the policy differences,” he added.
According to Cheong Wa Dae, the government has not ruled out the possibility of Moon traveling to Beijing for the Winter Games in February 2022, hoping that China will play a constructive role in efforts to denuclearize North Korea. China is regarded as the only country that can exert influence on North Korea as the chief diplomatic protector and economic benefactor of the reclusive state.
But experts remain skeptical that a decision to attend the Games by Korean officials will have any impact on China’s role on the peninsula or in North Korea issues.
“Given the tense U.S.―China bilateral relationship, it appears unlikely that China will do much to get North Korea back to negotiations to resolve the nuclear issue with the North,” DeTrani said.
“China may help South Korea in the South’s efforts to move forward with inter-Korean humanitarian and economic cooperation with the North. I doubt, however, that China’s assistance to the ROK will deal with the denuclearization issue, for which the U.S. currently has the lead.”
Manning also said, “China’s position on North Korea has been consistent for 30 years, prioritizing stability above all. Moreover, China usually punishes, but rarely displays gratitude to other nations.”
Sneider said, “If North and South Korea want to issue some kind of statement about the state of their relations, however, that is their business but it need not involve the U.S., or China.”
