President Yoon Suk Yeol must decide — or may have already decided — whether to veto a bill launching a special counsel probe into allegations that the government interfered in an investigation into the death of a Marine during a flood rescue operation.
The decision, expected to be announced in the next couple of weeks, places the president in a major political dilemma.
Public perception of Yoon’s job performance is deteriorating, while there is strong support for the special prosecutor probe bill. Therefore, a potential veto of the bill could further damage his approval ratings.
The political environment in the National Assembly is also challenging for the president. The worst-case scenario for Yoon, where his veto is overridden during a revote in the Assembly, will send a clear signal of his weakening leadership within the governing party.
The main opposition-controlled Assembly railroaded the special counsel bill during a plenary session, Thursday, despite fierce protests from the ruling People Power Party (PPP). The bill, pushed by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), targets the government’s alleged interference in the military’s investigation into the death of Marine Cpl. Chae Su-geun during a flood rescue operation in July 2023.
The bill aims to launch a sweeping investigation into officials at the presidential office, the Ministry of National Defense and Marine Corps, to look into whether they have exerted influence in the military’s internal probe to omit allegations of criminal activity of individuals involved.
Lawmaker-elects of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) applaud after adopting a resolution urging the president to accept a special counsel probe bill into allegations surrounding the death of a Marine, during a party meeting at the National Assembly in Seoul, Friday. Joint Press Corps
Yoon’s office has opposed the bill, saying that the ongoing probe by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) into Chae’s death should take priority before considering the special counsel investigation.
Following the bill’s passage, his aides have hinted at the possibility of a presidential veto.
“If (the president) accepts the bill, it would leave a bad precedent and even be considered as a dereliction of duty,” Senior Presidential Secretary for Political Affairs Hong Chul-ho said during a radio interview, Friday.
Hong labeled the passage of the bill as a legislative frenzy by the opposition bloc that violates judicial procedures.
While a veto may shield the Yoon administration from a sweeping investigation, it would immediately invite criticism from the opposition parties. Two years into office, the president has already exercised his veto power nine times to reject 12 bills, which the opposition has condemned as an abuse of power.
Rejecting the special probe bill would also signal the start of larger battles with the opposition parties for Yoon, who faces an opposition-dominated Assembly for the remaining three years of his term.
The veto decision may also hamper the president’s ongoing efforts to listen to the voices of the public and collaborate with the opposition bloc, an approach adopted in the aftermath of the ruling party’s crushing defeat in the April 10 elections, where the PPP managed to win only 108 seats in the 300-member Assembly.
Yoon’s approval ratings have plummeted to below 30 percent, according to the latest polls. A survey conducted by Embrain Public from April 29 to May 1 found that 67 percent of 1,000 respondents agreed that launching a special counsel probe into Chae’s case should be enacted.
Marine reserves react to the passage of a special counsel probe bill into the death of a Marine surnamed Chae, during a plenary session of the National Assembly in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap
Making matters more complicated for the president is the possibility that his veto may not prevail, as an Assembly revote could overturn it. The DPK plans to table the bill on a revote during a plenary session in the last week of May, if the president vetoes it.
A bill returned to the Assembly for a revote requires the attendance of a majority of present members and approval from more than two-thirds of attending members to pass.
With a total of 296 present members in the current Assembly, the bill can be approved with 198 in favor. The opposition bloc holds 180 seats, including the DPK and its satellite party’s 155 seats. This means that at least 18 votes from ruling party lawmakers favoring the bill would ensure its passage.
In the past, the PPP effectively blocked attempts to override presidential vetoes by consistently voting together against these bills during revotes.
But this time, it remains uncertain how many of the PPP members will maintain loyalty to the party, as the parliament is set to dissolve at the end of May. In particular, those who lost in the April 10 general elections may be less willing to show a “one team” spirit, or even attend the plenary session which will be the last one in the incumbent Assembly.
