South Korea and the United States held their inaugural Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting, Tuesday, marking new assurances that Washington will provide its full capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to help Seoul deter North Korea’s escalating nuclear and missile threats.
At the same time, however, the meeting also symbolizes the start of a complex journey for the two countries to define to what extent Seoul’s role will be in U.S. nuclear planning and execution.
According to the presidential office, South Korea’s First Deputy Director of National Security Kim Tae-hyo and U.S. National Security Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell co-chaired the meeting at Seoul’s presidential office. The meeting was held behind closed doors.
“The consultative body should respond seamlessly to the escalating North Korean nuclear and missile threats through the enhanced execution of deterrence,” President Yoon Suk Yeol said while talking to the officials at the beginning of the meeting.
“Just as President (Joe) Biden warned in April that a nuclear attack by North Korea would result in the end of their regime, we must strengthen the execution of deterrence through a nuclear-based South Korea-U.S. alliance to prevent North Korea from daring to use nuclear weapons.”
The NCG is the outcome of the Washington Declaration, which was announced by Yoon and Biden during the Korean president’s state visit to the U.S. in April.
The declaration is aimed at reaffirming the U.S.’ extended deterrence to counter North Korea’s escalating nuclear and missile threats. The NCG focuses on implementing that extended deterrence by giving Seoul more insight and an increased presence in U.S. nuclear planning and execution in response to worst-case scenarios involving an attack by the North.
The North has escalated its provocations since the Washington Declaration was announced. North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile last week when Yoon was attending the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Lithuania to draw the attention of European nations to Pyongyang’s nuclear threats. And on Monday, the North warned that efforts to increase extended deterrence would only push it further away from the negotiating table.
Against this backdrop, Yoon said the inaugural NCG meeting will be “a crucial starting point for the two countries to establish a robust and effective deterrence.”
“Through an upgraded South Korea-U.S. alliance that embraces a nuclear-centered paradigm, substantive efforts will be made to block the nuclear and missile threats posed by North Korea in a fundamental way,” Yoon said during a Cabinet meeting at his office.
President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell during the inaugural meeting of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group at the presidential office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of the presidential office
‘Complex journey’
Although the NCG kicked off to flesh out the nuances of the consultative group and provide a security assurance that South Korea can rely on, experts said there are differences that Seoul and Washington need to resolve.
For South Korea, the goal of the NCG is institutionalizing its presence in Washington’s planning and operation of nuclear assets in the process of executing extended deterrence. The Yoon administration has been saying that the NCG allows Seoul to take part in the planning of U.S. nuclear operations, which is similar to NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG).
On the other hand, the Biden administration describes the NCG as a vehicle giving South Korea greater insight into U.S. nuclear planning and execution, showing differences the two sides have on the matter.
“For the Biden administration, which has been making efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the reference to the term ‘nuclear’ in the NCG comes as a big concession,” said Go Myong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies.
“While South Korea is seeking to evolve the NCG into something close to the NPG, the pace of these talks could be slower than what Seoul expects … Given that, the NCG is likely to be upgraded in a step-by-step growth curve, not a linear one, with each escalation occurring in response to provocations by North Korea.”
Lee Seong-hyon, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, also said the first NCG meeting illustrates just how seriously the two allies regard this issue, but at the same time signals the beginning of a complex journey.
“This initial step represents the beginning of a complex journey, where the details and terminology, such as the interpretation of ‘joint planning,’ will require thorough clarification,” Lee said. “Although the term is used by the Yoon administration, it is not in the Biden administration’s lexicon.”
Lee said Washington wants to assure South Korea of its security by providing an opportunity for them to observe U.S. nuclear operations, but South Korea seeks to be more than just an observer, saying a tabletop exercise might not meet the expectations of South Koreans
“Ultimately, the extent to which NCG caters to South Korea’s nuclear aspirations will be determined, in part, by the U.S. perception of South Korea’s status as an ally,” Lee said.
“This pertains not only to managing the North Korean threat but also to considering South Korea’s potential broader role in the Indo-Pacific region.”
