regardless of the circumstances that every political, social, economic, and cultural development occurs in Afghanistan, they directly or indirectly impact Iran’s national security. The reason is that Afghanistan is located in the cultural-civilizational sphere of Iran, and these two countries share a long border. Due to th geographical features of that border, it is not easy to protect them entirely, even by costing much. Therefore peace and stability in Afghanistan and the formation of an inclusive government consisting of all the ethnic groups in this country can lead to the establishment of security in Iran.
Over the past few decades, Iran has faced many problems on its eastern borders. Instability and internal chaos in Afghanistan have been the leading causes of these problems. The new process of forming a government in Afghanistan has created different issues on Iran’s eastern borders. It has had many threats and opportunities for Iran.
After signing the US-Taliban peace agreement (29th February 2020) in Qatar, both sides agreed to pave the way for the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan within 14 months.
Following this agreement, on 31st January 2021, and at the official invitation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Mullah Baradar Akhund, head of the Taliban’s political bureau accompanied by a group of political bureau members, came to Iran for political consultations. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the purpose of the meeting was to “encourage the Afghan parties to inter-Afghan dialogue, encourage them to find a solution for the problems through dialogue, and support them to find common ground for cooperation in expelling foreign troops from their country and ensuring the security of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the foreign troops.”
Accordingly, Iran is trying to expand its influence in Afghanistan to its advantage if needed. Iran wants the Taliban group to stay out of power in the post-peace central government. However, if that does not happen, Iran is willing to cooperate with the future government of Afghanistan if its core interests are preserved; also, make sure that, if the Taliban group come to power in the Afghan government, tensions and conflicts will not resume as in the 1990s.
In Iran’s strategic policies, the factors that strengthen the possible relationship between the Taliban and Iran are:
- To maintain and strengthen relations with cultural and religious groups who are close to them, which will lead to more Influence in Afghanistan by Iran (exploitation of the principle of geoculture).
- To reduce the threats to Iran’s national security by eliminating the influence and presence of significant powers in Afghanistan (exploitation of the principle of geostrategic).
- To influence and access Afghan markets for more significant economic benefits ( exploitation of the principle of geoeconomic).
- To obtain the waters of the Helmand River, preventing instability along the eastern borders and combating drug trafficking (national security principle).
In a general sense, at the international level, and considering the current situation, there are two optimistic and pessimistic views about Afghanistan’s future. The pessimistic groups believe that the withdrawal of the US military, its allies, and NATO from Afghanistan will inevitably create another Lebanese (during the 1980s); the stay of these forces in Afghanistan will form another Israeli-Palestinian. Also, they believe the United States cannot fix the current situation in Afghanistan promptly. Suppose Afghanistan fails to redefine new relations based on coexistence and equality among the various ethnic-religious groups. In that case, it does not deal effectively with the current violence and centrifugal forces. Therefore existing tensions will continue as a permanent problem in the political life of Afghanistan – and the region-….
The optimistic groups believe that the United States, through flexibility, tactical change, and in line with its hegemonic strategy, is gradually shifting power to Afghans, especially in the security area. Also, while the United States will purposefully use the capabilities of the United Nations, NATO, and its other allies to reduce its expenditures in Afghanistan, it will remain there for many years. Given the concerns over the possible complex situation following the withdrawal of international troops and considering Afghanistan’s ethnic and religious divisions, the process of nation-forming with the participation of trans-regional actors must continue until the necessary assurance, stability, and security are established.
In line with the two above propositions and regarding the future developments in Afghanistan, it seems that Iranian policymakers and decision-makers should consider at least the following possible scenarios on their agenda. The first scenario is that Iran should pave the way for political forces that converge with Iran to more influence in Afghanistan’s power structure while insisting on institutionalizing security and accelerating the reconstruction process. Another alternative is that due to the deep ethnic-religious division in Afghanistan and the centrifugal efforts in this country, the internal conflicts could lead to the gradual disintegration of Afghanistan. In that case, Iran must provide the necessary conditions to institutionalize the convergent groups with Iran, especially in the western parts of Afghanistan, through political and logistical support.
